NFL Week 16 best bets: One wager to make for every team (2024)

Saints: Derek Carr OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-135)

The Saints figured some things out in the red zone in recent weeks, namely targeting tight end Jimmy Graham – who has caught a touchdown pass in three consecutive games. But Carr’s offense is finally clicking when in scoring position. 9 of their last 10 red zone drives have ended with touchdowns after they went 15-of-40 through their first 11 games. That streak should continue with Chris Olave returning to the lineup to give Carr another weapon to work with. – John Sigler, Saints Wire

Rams: Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 rushing yards (+100)

No, this prop is not a joke. Stafford’s rushing yardage total is set at 0.5 yards. That means all he needs is 1 yard. One. Measly. Yard. Stafford has been much more comfortable scrambling this season and has already attempted 19 rushes for 70 yards – more rushing yards than he had in the last two seasons combined (52 yards) on 45 attempts.

He’s finished with at least 1 rushing yard in 10 of his 13 starts this season and he’s now facing a Saints defense that has allowed 391 yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks – the most in the NFL. If this line were something like -150 or -200, I wouldn’t touch it. But at +100, it’s worth it. Sweating this bet is going to be a blast on Thursday night. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire

Bengals: Jake Browning OVER 237.5 passing yards (-115)

Well, don’t stop trusting him now. Jake Browning has thrown for 275-plus yards in each of his last three outings, including a 324-yard outburst against a feisty Brian Flores-directed Minnesota unit. Back in Week 12, he only threw for 227 yards against this Steelers defense, but that was while running Joe Burrow’s offense. Coaches have completely revamped the playbook since to shocking results and this up-and-down Steelers unit won’t have star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.– Chris Roling, Bengals Wire

Steelers: Mason Rudolph OVER 191.5 passing yards (-115)

Head coach Mike Tomlin has pulled into desperation station and has decided to start Mason Rudolph over Mitch Trubisky. While no one expects the offense to suddenly turn the offense around but we do expect him to top 200 yards passing. If there’s one thing Rudolph isn’t shy about it’s taking shots downfield and he’s going to want to get guys like Diontae Johnson and George Pickens involved.– Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire

Bills: Easton Stick + Josh Allen OVER 1.5 combined interceptions (+100)

There is good and bad here for the Bills. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is 9-3 against rookie quarterbacks and in those outings, his defense has 17 interceptions. Stick isn’t a rookie, but he’s making his second career start. Buffalo’s zone defense will be difficult for him as he’s without No. 1 WR Keenan Allen. And if that’s not enough, Bills QB Josh Allen did a great job not throwing a pick last week. He also only attempted 15 passes. Prior to that, he had an interception in nine straight games. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire

Chargers: Easton Stick UNDER 204.5 passing yards (-115)

In his first NFL start against the Raiders, Stick threw for 257 yards but most of it came in garbage time. Now, he is set to face one of the best defenses that just held the Cowboys to less than 200 total yards. Los Angeles is also likely going to be without its top target in Keenan Allen, who is dealing with a heel injury. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire

Colts: Colts moneyline (+115)

Color me surprised as to why the Colts aren’t favored in this one. Sure, they are dealing with some injuries, but there’s a good chance Michael Pittman Jr. (concussion) and Jonathan Taylor (thumb) both play in this game, which makes a huge difference. The Falcons have a really good defense, one that will create some issues for the Colts in the red zone. But the Colts have won five of their last six games and have been road warriors with a 5-2 record this season. By no means will this be an easy win for Indy, but taking the moneyline doesn’t seem like a bad choice considering the Falcons just lost to the Carolina Panthers. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire

Falcons: QB Taylor Heinicke OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+145)

The Falcons benched Desmond Ridder after last week’s loss to the Panthers, giving the reins to Taylor Heinicke for this Sunday’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. While Heinicke is certainly no Patrick Mahomes, he’s a more competent quarterback than Ridder and the offense will likely be more efficient as a result. The Colts defense is good at getting pressure on the quarterback, but they have allowed 343 points this season. Heinicke should be capable of throwing two touchdown passes against Indianapolis in Week 17. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire

Seahawks: Seahawks moneyline (-145)

Seattle has dominated these early time-slot games the last several years and this week they get another boost from starting QB Geno Smith returning to the lineup. On the other side, rookie QB Will Levis has shown a lot of potential for the Titans, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury and likely won’t be 100% if he starts. If he can’t, Tennessee will look to limited veteran Ryan Tannehill. Either way, they’ll be playing behind a poor offensive line that has allowed 50 sacks so far this season. The Seahawks have feasted on bad pass-blocking lines this year, posting 14 quarterback hits against the Giants, 10 against the Panthers and eight against the Cardinals.

– Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire

Titans: Tyjae Spears OVER 27.5 rushing yards (-115)

Tyjae Spears has worked behind Derrick Henry all season long, but there’s reason to believe he’ll get more carries this week after Henry struggled mightily to get literally anything going in Week 15.

Spears’ carries have already begun to climb as compared to earlier in the season, with the rookie back seeing 32 the last three weeks, the most he’s had in any three-week span this season.

Further, Spears has totaled 29 yards or more in each of those contests, and he draws a matchup with a Seattle Seahawks defense ceding the eighth-most rushing yards per game. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire

Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-120)

St. Brown has topped the 100-yard receiving mark in six of Detroit’s last eight games. Expect plenty of targets against a Vikings defense that allows the NFL’s highest completion percentage. St. Brown ranks in the top 10 in yards after the catch per reception amongst qualifying receivers, so he’ll have opportunities to convert his targets into bigger yards than the Vikings are used to surrendering, too.– Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire

Vikings: Nick Mullens OVER 260.5 passing yards (-115)

Normally, you would struggle massively when you start your fourth quarterback of the season. Luckily for the Vikings, Mullens was the original backup. He didn’t start right away due to a back injury that had him on injured reserve. Once he did get in the game, Mullens was the same gunslinger that he’s been since he entered the National Football League. Every so often, he will make a bozo throw but Mullens will fire in passes in tight windows that look like a throw Kirk Cousins makes. With the Lions ranking 18th in passing yards allowed, Mullens should be able to get past that number in neutral conditions. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire

Commanders: Curtis Samuel OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-110)

Curtis Samuel has gone over this number eight times this season and in each of the last three games. He scored two touchdowns in last week’s loss. Samuel has also become Sam Howell’s favorite target recently, as Washington’s offense has featured more of the quick game. That benefits Samuel, a former running back, as he’s often a safety valve for Howell and can do damage after the catch.– Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire

Jets: Jets UNDER 20.5 points (-135)

Yes, the Jets are facing the league’s worst defense. But as almost everyone knows by now, the Jets have the worst offense in the league. They don’t know if Zach Wilson will even be able to play Sunday as he recovers from his concussion. The Jets have reached 20 points just once since Halloween. With even more quarterback questions, that streak likely continues. – Billy Riccette, Jets Wire

Packers: Aaron Jones anytime TD scorer (+145)

Jones returned from a knee injury last week and looked explosive, so don’t be surprised if the Packers unleash him this week against a shaky Panthers run defense. Jones might have only two rushing touchdowns this season, but he’s about to face a Carolina defense that has allowed an NFL-high 21 rushing scores. Needing to fix their recent red zone issues, the guess here is the Packers turn to Jones to make it happen in the scoring area. Multiple scores are possible. One score, whether it’s on the ground or through the air, looks like a layup. If you wanted to really go wild, Jones as the first touchdown scorer is +800 at BetMGM. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire

Panthers: Chuba Hubbard OVER 16.5 rushing attempts (-120)

Even though he wasn’t the running back that the Panthers signed to a four-year, $25.4 million deal this past spring, Hubbard is now the engine of the offense. He registered 25 carries in Week 13, 23 carries in Week 14 and 22 carries in Week 15. Over the past four weeks, Hubbard has a total of 93 touches—second only in the league to Los Angeles’ Kyren Williams over that span. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire

Browns: Browns win AND under 30.5 total points (+575)

This Cleveland offense is not dynamic. They have scored over 30 points just three times this season, and just once with Joe Flacco under center. The Houston defense is one of the best they have seen in recent weeks as well, so life will be tough for them to get into the endzone. However, starting Case Keenum against the top defense in the league also means scoring will be at a minimum for the Texans as well. Not to mention, their run game has been average-at-best this season, and well below average over the past three weeks as they take on a stout run defense. If the Browns can even muster up 20, well below that 30.5 mark, the odds are good that they can come away with a win in this one. – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire

Texans: Texans UNDER 9.5 first-half points (-115)

The Texans are likely to be without C.J. Stroud again this week, which means it’ll be Case Keenum under center again. Houston’s offense hasn’t been great as of late, even when Stroud was healthy, scoring no more than 22 points in any of their last five games and only 25 total in the last two. In their last three games, the Texans have averaged just 5.3 first-half points per game, and now they’re facing one of the best defenses in football. Bet the under here in what should be a low-scoring game overall. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires

Jaguars: Evan Engram OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-110)

It’s unclear for now who will be playing quarterback for the Jaguars, but the team has struggled to establish the run with Travis Etienne and will probably need to move the ball through the air, regardless. Tampa Bay hasn’t been particularly good at stopping that. Only the Commanders have allowed more passing yards and the Buccaneers have allowed tight ends to score touchdowns in five of their last eight games. With Christian Kirk out of the lineup and Zay Jones likely out too, expect Engram to see the ball often Sunday. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire

Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105)

Baker Mayfield baked against the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, and the way things are going, there’s no reason to think he won’t against Jacksonville. The Jags currently rank 15th in red zone scoring percentage on defense and 29th in pass yards allowed, both of which are prime conditions for Mayfield to strike at Raymond James Stadium. – River Wells, Bucs Wire

Cardinals: Kyler Murray OVER 1.5 TD passes (+155)

Murray has not yet had a game with multiple touchdown passes this season. Previously in his career, he never went more than 3 games without a game with at least two. Joe Flacco and Jared Goff both had 2 TD passes against the Bears in Chicago’s last 4 games. – Jess Root, Cards Wire

Bears: Justin Fields OVER 206.5 passing yards (-115)

Fields has made strides in the passing game this season, and he’s eclipsed the 200-yard passing mark in six of his 10 games played this season (and in one of those of games where he didn’t, he left with a thumb injury in the middle of the game). Now, Fields will face a Cardinals defense that’s allowed an average 248.5 passing yards per game, along with 11 passing touchdowns. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire

Cowboys: Brandin Cooks OVER 39.5 yards receiving (-120)

We can throw last week’s drubbing against the Bills out the window for every Cowboys prop on Sunday because that was an uncharacteristic game for Dallas. Cooks went over this total in four of his previous five games and has become a great No. 2 option for Dak Prescott. If the Dolphins focus most of their attention on CeeDee Lamb, Cooks should get a lot of one-on-one matchups on the outside. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires

Dolphins: Dak Prescott OVER 0.5 INTs (-130)

After starting off the season terribly when it comes to takeaways, the Dolphins have become one of the best in the league over the last two months. Miami has intercepted the opposing quarterback in seven of their last eight contests, with the lone game without one coming against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Prescott’s having one of his better years protecting the ball, but Vic Fangio’s defense has the talent that can cause chaos and force him to make a mistake. – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire

Patriots: Broncos win by 1-6 (+290)

The Patriots are great at keeping games close. If not for a missed field goal attempt by rookie kicker Chad Ryland, they would have lost by only a touchdown against an angry Kansas City Chiefs team coming off back-to-back losses last week. The Patriots defense has held better offenses in check than Denver’s. On the other end, New England should be able to drain the clock by running the ball successfully with Ezekiel Elliott and Kevin Harris against the Broncos’ league-worst run defense. – Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire

Broncos: Denver -6.5 (-110)

The Broncos’ most recent victories were both 17-point wins (over the Chargers and Browns). The Patriots’ most recent losses were 10- and 6-point defeats (against the Chiefs and Chargers). New England’s offense is a mess and Denver is playing at home, desperate for a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. On paper, a touchdown win looks feasible for the Broncos. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire

Raiders: Raiders OVER 0.5 first-half TDs (-130)

The Raiders went from 0 points in Week 14 to 63 in Week 15. Try to explain that. The Raiders had some success against the Chiefs a few weeks ago, scoring 14 points in the first half to take a 14-0 lead (they would ultimately lose that game). Can QB Aidan O’Connell and the offense score a first-half touchdown? That doesn’t seem like such a bad bet, especially with RB Josh Jacobs and LT Kolton Miller returning to the lineup. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire

Chiefs: Both teams to score OVER 3 points in first quarter (+180)

Holiday matchups like this are hard to predict, but one thing is certain: Both of these teams will be highly motivated to keep their playoff hopes alive on Christmas Day. The Chiefs have proven to be able to put points on the board early in games, and while the Raiders’ offense will have to contend with Kansas City’s surging defense, it isn’t a stretch to think they can get in field goal range early in the game. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire

Giants: Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 30.5 yards receiving (-120)

The Giants struggled to get wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson involved in Week 15 but head coach Brian Daboll says he’ll continue to receive the bulk of the snaps alongside rookie Jalin Hyatt. The Eagles are near the bottom of the league when it comes to effectively covering opposing wide receivers, so this could be an opportunity for Robinson to put up solid numbers. If the Giants can provide quarterback Tommy DeVito any time at all, Robinson will potentially draw the most offensive targets and position him well to eclipse 30.5 receiving yards, which seems like a low over/under anyway. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire

Eagles: Jalen Hurts OVER 40.5 rushing yards (-115)

Hurts is 36th in the NFL in rushing yards but good for second place behind Lamar Jackson in NFL QB Rushing yards. In the Week 15 loss to the Hurts, who was questionable to play with an illness, had 13 carries for 82 yards and two touchdowns. With Philadelphia badly needing a win, he’ll do what’s necessary to gain yardage, points, and a victory. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire

Ravens: Gus Edwards to score AND Ravens win (+300)

Edwards’ 11 rushing touchdowns are ranked as the fourth most in Ravens single-season history.

The physical running back is just 3 rushing TDs shy of tying Jamal Lewis’ record (14 in 2003), and with Keaton Mitchell out, he’ll carry the load for Baltimore down the stretch. Gus Edwards scores a rushing touchdown for the Ravens in their biggest win over the season.– Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire

49ers: Gus Edwards OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-110)

The 49ers’ defense has two major vulnerabilities. They’re banged up on the interior of their defensive line and they’ve missed approximately 1 million tackles the last three weeks (it’s actually 42 per Pro Football Focus). Those two things are something Baltimore can take advantage of by getting behind their big RB. With Keaton Mitchell out for the season, Edwards should see a lion’s share of the work and cruise to the over here. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire